At the Pre-Election Analysis Luncheon yesterday, Commentary predicted that Dems would pretty much sweep the Harris County countywide races – what! Ok, here’s why I’m out on a limb. Remember a few days ago I laid out the straight party ticket votes for the last two Prez races. 52.7% of the total vote in 2000 and 64% in 2004. In light of the fact that we had a record turnout of Dems in our primary this past March, you can pretty much count on the Dem straight party vote to increase this time around. This leaves a smaller percentage of ticket splitters, errr independents this time around and I think they will be doing more Dem picking than GOP which in case you haven’t figured out is a spoiled brand this time around. Some Lone Star State GOP consultants are saying that Texas is immune to the current national political climate. You know, I’ve never seen even the best SpinMeister, spin a soggy t_rd. They need take their heads out of their arses if you ask me.
Then you have to factor in that the Dem base is more enthused than the GOP base. Plus, the demographics have been changing in Harris County. There are more folks of color and younger voters that are registered to vote. The countywide GOPers that may survive are the GOP County Judge who got an Ike fix last month and the Taxman, Paul Bettencourt, who pretty much has stayed out peoples’ business lately. Think about it, in 2004, those Dems that sacrificed themselves and ran countywide, some of them ended up with mid 40 percentages – and that’s without an effort. The political climate has dramatically changed in case you haven’t noticed. We also have a ground game and multiple headquarters with a lot of activity. I just don’t see any evidence or scenario for a local GOP victory.
The local GOP countywide office holders had a pretty much arrogant attitude up until the former DA got nailed. Then the GOP sheriff got caught in unethical deals. And the GOP county attorney just kind of went along with everything and swept it under the rug. Now when you factor in a lousy economy where real voters are losing real money it equals a sweep in the making and I don’t think there is anything they can do about it this late in the game.
Hey local GOP – stuff happens. Dems have been swept before. Now it’s your turn to end up in the dust pan.
Commentary thinks that the smartest local GOPer of the Year may be former County Judge Robert Eckels – who got out just in time.
I’ll watch the debate tonight but I don’t think it is going to change things.
Let’s see now, the Rays lead the Red Sox three games to one and the Phillies lead the Dodgers three games to one. I don’t think MLB or Fox Sports want to see a Rays/Phillies World Serious.
Something to report from The Yard – here’s what the Chron had to say about Pam-In-Charge’s “Woman on the Move” piece on Sunday: “Pam Gardner grew up in Wisconsin and put herself through college by waiting tables and working the graveyard shift at the local paper mill. After graduating from the University of Wisconsin-Stout, her first job was in the mailroom at a Chicago public relations and advertising agency. Over 12 years Gardner moved up the ranks to vice president before moving to Houston. Gardner sent a blind résumé to the Houston Astros in 1989 because they were looking for a director of communications. She got the job, and Gardner eventually became president of business operations.
She is on the boards of the Houston Area Women’s Center, Central Houston and the Newfield Exploration Co. She has two adult children.”
Not bad at all!